Over the course of an intensive two-day programme, over 400 delegates gathered for the Global Investment and Finance Forum (GIFF), to look at the effect of the worldwide credit crunch on the Russian economy – and other significant long term trends.
Intended partly as a curtain raiser to the next Russian Economic Forum in London, to be held on 20-22 April 2008, the conference gave the Russian business and finance community a unique opportunity to discuss and debate what is happening on global markets, and to hear the perspective of a wide range of international opinion formers from outside Russia.
Roger Munnings, President and CEO, KPMG Russia/CIS, opened the first plenary on Monday 10 December, where speakers echoed a bullish tone that seemed to suggest Russia was more insulated from the liquidity crunch than Western economies. A high profile speaker lineup included Alexei Kudrin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation; Leonid Reiman, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Russian Federation; Vladimir Dmitriev, Chairman, Vnesheconombank; Chris Gibson-Smith, Chairman of the London Stock Exchange; Alexander Potemkin, President, MICEX and Alexei Gurin, Chief Executive Officer, CentreInvest Group (CIG).
The second panel, moderated by John Peet, Europe Editor, Economist, featured more of a mix of views. Speakers included Charles E. Ryan, Chief Country Officer and CEO, Deutsche Bank Group in Russia; Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Board of Directors, MDM Bank; Ruben Vardanian, Chief Executive Officer, Troika Dialog and Gerald Kowalski, Chairman of the Board, International Industrial Bank and Deputy Chairman of the Board, United Industrial Corporation (OPK), each of whom offered their own warnings about the dangers Russia needs to be aware of in the months ahead. Hedge fund manager James Chanos of Kynikos Associates, on his first ever trip to Russia, completed a strong lineup.
Just after lunch, delegates were treated to a unique live interview with Anatoly Chubais, CEO of RAO Unified Energy System of Russia, conducted by Maxim Kashulinsky, Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Russia. In a frank exchange, Mr Chubais answered a variety of challenging questions about power sector reform in Russia.
The remainder of the programme featured thematic sessions on a number of carefully selected topics.
A session in conjunction with Kommersant-Dengi looked at ways that the liquidity crunch might actually offer some hidden opportunities for the Russian economy. Sergei Yakovlev, Editor-in-Chief of the magazine, chaired a high profile panel that included Arkady Dvorkovich, Head of the Experts Directorate of the President of the Russian Federation; Vladimir Milovidov, Head of the Federal Financial Markets Service; Elena Titova, Managing Director of Morgan Stanley Russia; Roman Goryunov, CEO of RTS and Alexei Rybnikov, CEO, MICEX Stock Exchange.
This was followed by the last session of Day One – in cooperation with EBRD – which looked at the prospects for PPP in Russia. Natalia Khanjenkova of EBRD moderated another strong panel: Igor Finogenov, Chairman of the Board, Eurasian Development Bank; H.E. Ambassador Marc Franco, Head of the Delegation of the European Commission to Russia; Dr. Fruzsina Biro, Former Director General of the Hungarian Ministry of Economy and Transport; Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Board, Macquarie Renaissance; Andrew Hunter, Head of Capital Advisers, Europe, Macquarie Group (on behalf of Macquarie Renaissance); Victor Pastor, Group CFO, FCC (including Alpine Bau) and Alexander Yerofeyev, Partner, Corporate Finance, KPMG
Day Two began with a CFO Roundtable, held in cooperation with Finance Magazine. A hands-on discussion looked at the real impact of the credit crunch on the ability of companies to raise capital on the markets, the potential for it to hit the economy as a whole, including the consumer boom – and other prospects for the medium to long term. As moderator, Oleg Anisimov, Editor-in-Chief of Finance Magazine, challenged all the speakers in a lively discussion. The lineup featured Evgeny Luneev, Vice President, Economics and Finance, PIK Group; Anton Kovalevsky, Finance Director, Sukhoi Civil Aviation; Alexander Papin, Vice President, Finance, Euroset and Dmitry Kornilov, Finance Director of Uralsib Leasing.
This was followed by Eventica’s always popular Media Roundtable, which for this conference focussed on what some perceive as a ‘disconnect’ between the positive growth of the Russian economy and the increasingly negative coverage Russia receives in the international media. The panel featured some lively exchanges between John Peet, Europe Editor of the Economist and Robin Geffen, Managing Director and CIO of Neptune Investment Management, and interesting contibutions from the other speakers: Margarita Simonian, Editor-in-Chief, Russia Today TV and Maxim Seltzer, General Director, Nomura (CIS) Ltd. The moderator was Maxine Maters, Publisher of The Moscow Times, who did an excellent job of steering quite a contentious discussion.
The final session - “What About the Real Economy?” - gave delegates a chance to unpack the influence of the markets on the economy as a whole. Rory MacFarquhar, Managing Director and Director of New Markets Economic Research at Goldman Sachs, led a strong panel, featuring Mike Calvey, Co-Managing Partner, Baring Vostok Capital Partners; Maarten van den Belt, Chairman of the Managing Board, Bank WestLB Vostok; Ivan Mazalov, Director, Prosperity Capital Management; Gene Zolotarev, Senior Vice President, Parex Bank & Chairman, Parex Asset Management and Dan Rapoport, Executive Director, CentreInvest Securities.
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